We only have to worry about two things with this play: The first being, Portland is playing out of their comfort zone of their home court and the second being Portland's defensive strength is defending the three point shot and the Spurs' offensive strength is making the three point shot -- something has to give and the value here is just too much to pass up. As we have seen so far on this young season is this is not the same Portland team from years past that plays a slow half-court game.

This new, athletic Portland lineup loves to run, especially when Felton is on the court, and we suspect they will especially want to run tonight in order to wear down the older Spurs who don't have Ginobli. However, San Antonio is a system offense and if they can get into just a little bit of a rhythm, this one should fly over the total. The Spurs are all about finding the open guy and letting him shoot whoever that might be. Popovich has confidence in all of his guys If you look at the boxscores, even though Portland is 8th overall in DEF, they are not as efficient defensively on the road. Furthermore their opponent effective shooting % and opponent true shooting % numbers are in the bottom 1/3 of the league. If you go through the schedule, you will see that their defense feasted off of the weaker teams like Phoenix, Cleveland and Sacramento, but has had tough times against the more efficient offenses like Orlando, OKC, Denver and Philly.

Tonight, Portland will be facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency as the Spurs' system offense continues to generate points, even without Ginobli. With the Spurs at home, we think they find an early rhythm and play a solid game offensively and they surprisingly have a solid advantage in total rebounding %. With that said, the other end of the court has been a different story this season for the Spurs. Historically, the Spurs have been one of the better defensive teams, however, this season has not been good defensively for SA. The currently rank at or near the bottom in DEFF, OTS%, OEFG% and even though they have solid opponent offensive and defensive rebounding % numbers we think the length, athleticism and quickness of Portland could pose problems for Duncan and Blair down low.

Back to Article Listing