Finding value in the moneyline is the biggest aspect of underdog betting with the exception of winning of course. At times, we look for value based on a number of factors and one of the strongest is getting an elite starting pitcher at an underdog price and that is the case with the Mariners tonight. Seattle is a horrible team on the road as it is 15-32 and that is definitely one of the factors in driving this line. We need to take into consideration how important that is and in this case it is little because over a quarter of those wins have come with tonight's starting pitcher on the mound while only 18 percent of the losses have come with Felix Hernandez pitching. The White Sox are home again following a disappointing roadtrip where they went 4-6 but were able to hold onto first place by a game in the American League Central over the Twins. They have done nothing special at home with their offense especially and tonight looks to be another night of limited production. Hernandez has been outstanding of late as he has tossed eight straight quality outings including last time out against these same White Sox.

He retired his final 17 batters and allowed only two balls out of the infield in that span in one of his better games of the season and there have been many. Nine of 10 road starts this season have been quality performances and over the last two years against the White Sox, he has not allowed a run in 23 innings while posting a 27/5 K/BB ratio. John Danks is no slouch for sure and he is another reason the line is what it is. He has a 3.37 ERA on the season including a 2.70 ERA in 10 home starts but the problem is that Chicago is just 5-5 in those games. He pitched a gem against the Mariners last week but he has put up a few really rough outings of late as inconsistency has been the biggest issue. Seattle also falls into a great situation where you play on underdogs of +150 or less with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season but with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 36-14 (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Also the Mariners are 13-3 in Hernandez' 16 starts when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. 3* Seattle Mariners