This number may seem high for a game played in Arizona but with this pitching matchup and the potential for these offenses, I think it is lower than it should be. The Yankees are coming off a 6-3 homestand but the offense saw a huge dip in production following 7.5 rpg through the first four games. Part of the issue was pitching as the Yankees went up against some tough starting pitching over the latter half of the homestand. Arizona is coming off a tough roadtrip where it went 1-5 and averaged only 3.7 rpg on offense but that has been the case for the offense all season when playing outside of Arizona. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 rpg at home compared to 4.1 rpg on the road this season. The Yankees production goes down away from New York but they still average a solid 4.7 rpg in road games. A.J. Burnett has been pitching horrible of late. He started the season with a 1.99 ERA through his first six starts but his last eight starts have seen him post a 6.36 ERA with just two of those starts being quality performances.

The Yankees are just 3-5 in those games and even the potent New York offense has been unable to bail him out the majority of the time. Take away three starts against the Orioles and his ERA rises from 3.86 to 5.23. The run support comes back tonight however against Rodrigo Lopez. He has been up and down this season and after a very solid start, it has been mostly down. He has a 5.40 ERA at home this season and over his last six starts, his ERA is 5.85. He has had a lot of experience against the Yankees but it has been bad experience for him unfortunately. He has a 5.90 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 20 career starts against New York. Arizona is 11-3 to the ‘Over' this season as an underdog of +150 or more while the Yankees are 25-11 to the ‘Over' in their last 36 games against starting pitchers that allow one or more homeruns per start. 3* Over New York Yankees/Arizona Diamondbacks