It is rare for me to play favorites, even small favorites like this, but there is tremendous value on the Dodgers here. Los Angeles blew away the Reds last night 12-0 and that now makes it 13 wins in the last 16 meetings in this series. The Dodgers were slight favorites last night as well and they have the same caliber starter going tonight and the angle that plays against the Reds is even stronger. Cincinnati is just 3-5 on its current homestand and it has now fallen into a first place tie with the Cardinals in the National League Central. The pitching is turning into a problem and while the top starter goes tonight for the Reds, the situation says to go against them. Mike Leake is having a stellar rookie season as he is 5-0 with a 2.68 ERA on the year with 10 of his 12 starts being quality outings. He is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing five runs on 11 hits and four walks against the Giants but was able to walk away with a no-decision and remain undefeated. That unblemished record is where we get the value as well as a play against situation explained later.

The Dodgers counter with Clayton Kershaw who has also put together a great season thus far with a 3.13 ERA to go along with his 6-3 record. He has one poor outing on his card when he was hammered for seven runs in 1.1 innings against the Brewers eight starts back. Take that away and his ERA drop to a superb 2.36 in his other 12 starts. The Dodgers are 9-4 in his 13 starts overall and they have won three of his last four away from home. He pitched a gem in his lone career start against Cincinnati last season, allowing just two runs on four hits in seven innings while striking out 11. Play on teams with a moneyline between +125 and -125 with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after five or more starts. This situation is 41-17 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, the Dodgers are 8-0 in Kershaw's last eight starts against teams with a winning record while the Reds are 1-6 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers