The Yankees have won the first two games of this series in Boston to make it four in a row over the Red Sox but the value lies with the home team tonight in this huge rivalry game in my opinion. Boston had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday and after yesterday, it dropped back to a game under .500 on the season. While the Yankees have owned this series dating back to last season with wins in 13 of the last 15 meetings, the situation sets up well for the Red Sox to get their second win against the Yankees this year. A.J. Burnett has been solid this season with a 1.99 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through six starts and he is coming off two straight outings where he allowed no runs.

This is his second start against Boston this season after receiving a no-decision in the first meeting and he struggled yet again at Fenway Park. In four starts thee since coming over to the Yankees, Burnett has an 11.72 ERA with none of those four games being quality outings. Jon Lester was on the losing end in that game against Burnett although he also received a no-decision. He started slow with three rough outings but he has since settled down and allowed only one run in his last three starts. He did have a string of six straight quality starts against the Yankees so he has what it takes to get through this lineup. Boston falls into a great situation as well. Play on home teams with the moneyline between +125 and -125 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This situation is 37-16 (69.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The Red Sox are 32-7 in Lester's last 39 starts as a home favorite while going 17-4 in his last 21 home starts against teams with a winning record. 3* Boston Red Sox