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Free NFL Thanksgiving Day Pick

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by Mike Neri Sports - 11/26/2009 12:27 PM
Sport: NFL
Game: PRIMETIME NFL NETWORK
Date/Time: 11/26/2009 8:20PM EST
Pick: Giants -6''
Reason:

ATTENTION: For the first time in more than one month an NFL "5 Unit" Best Bet event in the GUARANTEED section!!!

"1 UNIT" NFL PRIMETIME (Giants -6' at Broncos in an 8:20 eastern kickoff on NFL Network): This is one of those wagers where I feel the oddsmakers have made a loud statement by the way they chose to price a particular contest. After both winning-and-covering the initial 5 outings, the Giants are on a 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS slide with the one straight-up triumph just barely in overtime. Denver started the season winning-and-covering the initial 6 games but have since gone a dismal 0-4 SU/ATS which has led to players bickering on the sideline. One would think Denver has the clear advantage tonight playing a second consecutive contest in front of their own fans while New York has been forced to travel several time zones on a "short week". Despite these teams being very similar and Denver have the benefit of no significant travel, the oddsmakers have posted the Giants as a prohibitive favorite and I for one am taking their lead. Even though this past Sunday saw a close contest stretch into overtime at Giants Stadium, New York's offense notched their SECOND-BEST showing of the season with 456 total yards. The most important statistic this past Sunday was Giants quarterback Eli Manning passing for a career best 384 yards and proving that he is now relatively healthy after battling heel problems for almost one solid month. I will admit that Giant running backs Brandon Jacobs (leg) and Ahmad Bradshaw (ankle) are banged up while defensive standout Antonio Pierce (top tackler and team leader) is out indefinitely with a neck injury, but that once again makes tonight's excessive price tag for New York even that more telling. The bottom line is that the Giants are a more unified squad as opposed to Denver who held a "players only" meeting on Tuesday which is never a good sign. One of the problems for the Broncos has been an ankle injury to starting quarterback Kyle Orton who is will start this evening but is far from 100%. Denver reminds me of Cleveland in that they have a starting quarterback who refuses to force the issue by throwing deep passes which would make opposing defenses more honest. Speaking of defense the Giants courtesy of a soft early schedule were at one time ranked #1 in that department and are seemingly catching a much needed break this evening against an opponent who put just THREE points on the scoreboard last time out. The main reason why Denver is getting so many points at home is because they have been outscored during their four-game skid (117-37) by an enormous margin. The bottom line is that the New York Giants have produced more money for investors on the highway than any other team recently in the NFL. In the past three years the Giants are 9-1 ATS/ROAD against an opponent with a winning record (8-0 ATS/ROAD when the total is between 35'-and-42 points which is the case this evening). The Giants have also COVERED SIX IN A ROW on the highway when off a CLOSE win of 6-or-less points in margin. Thus the mere location of tonight's game give the clear gambling edge to the visiting Giants

Rare NFL "5 Unit" Best Bet (Packers/Lions) in the GUARANTEED section. This is the first pro "5 Unit" bombshell in 32 days!!!


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