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It''s Thanksgiving week, which means the middle of the NFL campaign while winding down the college football regular season. Late season college football means heated races for conference titles and bowl berths, plus rivalries that span decades, all of which can influence college football predictions. These games can have far more importance for players than September/October clashes. Oklahoma/Ok-State, USC/UCLA, Florida/Florida State, Georgia/
Georgia
Tech and Auburn/Alabama bring out extra intensity and emotion.
Remember all the upsets late in 2007? Pitt got fired up to play
West Virginia
and won as a +28 dog, while
Missouri
knocked off unbeaten
Kansas
. Four years ago unbeaten
Texas
was a 27-point favorite at rival Texas A&M. The Aggies had one of the worst defenses in the nation, but Dennis Franchione''s boys played an inspired game, leading in the third quarter and down just 34-29 going into the fourth. The maligned Aggie defense played well and A&M finished with an edge in yards over No. 2 Texas, 398-336.
Athletes might not always admit it, but playing on national television can help raise their games a notch, such as Thanksgiving week and conference title tilts in December. There have been many memorable upsets, too. In 2001, there were 12 college and pro football games played Thursday and Friday of Thanksgiving weekend, and the underdog was 11-1 against the spread. Five dogs won straight up, including
Colorado
as a 10-point dog smashing
Nebraska
62-36, the No. 2 ranked team in the nation.
2007 is remembered as the year of upsets in college football:
Michigan
losing to Appalachian State,
Louisville
losing to
Syracuse
, No. 1 LSU losing in three overtimes to
Kentucky
, USC losing to Stanford as 42-point chalk and No. 1 Ohio State losing at home as a 15-point favorite to
Illinois
all shocked and muddled the BCS picture. Here is a list of the biggest college football upsets of all time that stunned college football predictions:
2007 Stanford (+42) tops USC, 24-23
2007
Syracuse
(+39) at
Louisville
, 38-35
1985
Oregon
State
(+36) tops
Washington
, 21-20
1985 UTEP (+36) over BYU, 23-16
1998
Temple
(+35½) beats Virginia Tech, 28-24
2007 Appalachian St (+35) at
Michigan
, 34-32
1972
Missouri
(+35) beat Notre Dame, 30-26
1974 Purdue (+34) at Notre Dame, 31-20
1992
Iowa
State
(+29) over
Nebraska
, 19-10
1969
San Jose
State
(+29) at
Oregon
, 36-34
1995 Northwestern (+28) over Notre Dame, 17-15
2007 Pitt (+28) tops
West Virginia
, 13-9
1942 Holy Cross (+28) beats
Boston
College
, 55-12
2007 was a historic year, nearly monopolizing the list, with four of the biggest upsets ever, including the top two. One thing that stands out is the number of "public teams" like Notre Dame,
Nebraska
and
Michigan
that got upset. This is an example of how oddsmakers have to add points to public teams, as well as how smaller schools can get fired up to face big-name schools, such as
Toledo
winning at
Michigan
this season.
It doesn''t always help to be one of the top teams in the polls as opponents can be gunning for you. Everyone is familiar with No. 1 Ohio State going down in 2007 as
Illinois
surprised them, 28-21. Few recall that a year earlier
Ohio
State
was also No. 1 in the nation and as a 25-point favorite at
Illinois
, the Buckeyes had to hang on for dear life in a 17-10 win. The Illini was gunning for No. 1 for a signature win.
In a sense, it was
Illinois
'' bowl game in 2006 with their season winding down, so they played all out. That same day, No. 2 Michigan had to hold on as a 32-point favorite against
Ball
State
, a 34-26 win, two games that nearly disrupted their No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown. Not only can the opponent be fired up, but the big favorite might not be taking the game seriously. After the
Ball
State
game,
Michigan
quarterback Chad Henne said, "I think that is a lot of the reason why we weren''t focused. Coming into the game, people were reading too many press clippings."
Two years ago
Boston
College
got to No. 2 in the polls at one point, their highest ranking since 1942. You''ll notice on the upset list above that the BC Eagles are on there.In late November of ''42, BC was unbeaten and ranked No. 1 in the nation, closing in on the school''s first national championship. In the final tune-up before the bowls, BC played a
4-4-1
Holy Cross team and was a 4-TD favorite. Yet, it was a rivalry game and fired-up Holy Cross flattened the No. 1 ranked Eagles 55-12 in one of the biggest upsets ever. Pitt did something similar two years ago when they stunned rival
West Virginia
, 13-9. Those are good example of how rivalries can force bettors to discount point spreads in assessing college football predictions, or take a closer look at the dog, not to mention high-profile games this time of the year.
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