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MLB Free Pick Thursday June 4 2009

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by Mike Neri Sports - 6/4/2009 10:18 AM
Sport: MLB
Game: San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals Gm. 2
Date/Time: 6/4/2009 8:05PM EST
Pick: San Francisco Giants
Reason:

This is game two of the doubleheader between San Francisco and Washington. The Giants lost in Washington on Tuesday but I see a big rebound performance on Thursday following yesterday's rainout. San Francisco has struggled on the road this season but it is playing the worst team in baseball who won for just the first time in seven games. The Nationals wins do not come often and they have not won back-to-back games since May 8th and 9th, going 0-4 following a win since then which shows just how few and far between those victories have been coming. This will come into play if the Nationals win this afternoon in the first game but I do not see that happening either so this is just an example of how the wins just are not coming through for Washington.

The Giants are 7-16 on the road but Washington is 8-16 at home so the difference is minimal. Of those 16 losses for San Francisco, 12 have come against division opponents. The Giants send Matt Cain to the hill as a small chalk and he is well worth laying a small price. He is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball that no one knows about. Part of the reason is that he is overshadowed by Tim Lincecum and the other is simply due to bad luck. Cain went 15-30 in 2007 and 2008 which looks horrible but when you see his ERA over those two years of 3.71, it is a whole difference story. He never got run support but that has changed this season as he is getting 5.2 rpg. He is pitching even better, going 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 10 starts with San Francisco going 7-3 in those games. Eight of those 10 starts have been quality outings including all four on the road where his ERA is a spectacular 1.29. Washington counters with Ross Detwiler who looked good in his first two outings but was hit hard last time out against the Phillies, allowing five runs on 10 hits in just four innings. Going back home could help but playing for Washington negates that as he has dropped both games pitched at National Park.

The Giants are 7-0 in Cain's last seven starts against the National League East and they have won nine of the last 11 meetings in this series. Washington has struggled even against the bad road teams in the league as it is 2-9 in its last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage less than .400. 3* San Francisco Giants

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