Free Pick: Denver vs Cleveland
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by Sportsbook Advisor - 12/13/2018 6:22 PM Share
The NFL shifts a few games to Saturday this time of year because of the off weeks in college football. It is a wise move. These Saturday games get good ratings for the networks. The game we are previewing today is one of those Saturday games. It goes at 8:20 pm EST.

The 6-7 Denver Broncos take on the 5-7-1 Cleveland Browns. The point spread is Denver -3 and the total is 45.5. Many sportsbooks have shifted down to Denver -2.5. So, you can see where the money is coming in.

The upstart Browns have won three of their last four games under rookie QB Baker Mayfield. They are coming off a hard fought win vs the Panthers last Sunday. This team is confident and their ability is matching their confidence.

The Broncos are also 3-1 in their last four. They are coming off a tough loss to the 49ers last week. This is also a very confident team who feels like they are much better than their 6-7 record reflects.

Against the spread Cleveland is 8-5. Denver is 6-6-1. Cleveland averages 22 PPG on offense but allows 25. Denver scores 22 PPG and allows 21. On paper Denver is a slightly more potent offense and a slightly stingier defense. But, the NFL and its betting public are all about "what have you done for me lately". If Denver didn't lose at SF last weekend Denver would be 4 point favorites. Such is the NFL.

Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver.
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver.
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.

I am going to go against the trends on this one. I like Cleveland's attitude now. I like the way the players are clicking. At this level of competition, every team has extremely talented athletes. The edge might be believing you are going to win. I like Cleveland to cover the three points and if they lose, they keep it very close.

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